Subsidies – Newspapers, Automobiles, Banks Need New Success Formulas

"Senator proposes nonprofit status for newspapers" was the headline at Marketwatch.com today.  Senator Benjami Cardin, a democrate from Maryland, has proposed allowing newspapers to convert to 501(c)(3) status so their subscription and advertising revenue woujld be tax exempt, while contributions to run the papers would be tax deductible. This would allow some newspapers to stay afloat.

Let me share with you a response I received from a fellow reader of this blog:

"I watched Chris Mathews and had the same feeling.  As they spoke I had visions of chiefs of Bethlehem, U.S. Steel, etc. sitting around a table in the 60s going 'continuous casting, those Japanese, that's not going anywhere.'

How can they say investigative reporting is going to be dead – there are a million reporters out there working for passion and curiosity.  As a matter of fact, if I was going to be paid for a year to chase a story, seems to me a strong incentive to create a story when there really wasn't one.

I loved the way they were holding the paper and saying how people will miss the periphery articles.  People will be limited to their feeds and be exposed to the rest of what's going on.  I look at it as if I read an article in a newspaper that is just one take of the situation.  With the internet I can drill down to get additional information and opinions.  Plus get immediate commentary from experts."

Lots of people are getting "subsidy happy" these days.  Money to banks, money to car companies, money to newspapers.  What we must realize is that these short-term subsidies should be targeted at stopping a worse calamity.  Nothing more.  Sort of trading off company subsidies against even higher costs for unemployment, uninsured health care, and the costs of letting companies fail short-term.  The reality is that none of these subsidized companies are sustainable as they are.  The market has shifted, and their Success Formulas no longer produce positive results.  They will burn up the subsidy money, as we've already seen happen at GM, and soon ask for more. 

When markets shift, new competitors emerge to thrive.  Provided we don't get in their way by propping up bad competitors too long with subsidies.  In banking, we saw the unregulated institutions on a global scale start doing all sorts of financial services.  While some of these are reverting back to regulated banks in the U.S. today so they can receive subsidies, globally we have seen the emergence of immense banks that are outside U.S. regulation.  These institutions can borrow and lend globally, and are creating a new approach to financial services.  We can't prop up an uncompetitive Citigroup against giant global banks making profits offshore.  Likewise, globalization of manufacturing now means that good, low cost cars can be produced in Korea, China and India – making rates of return on higher cost labor in the USA, Germany and Japan harder to obtain.  Additionally, many of these offshore competitors (in particular Japanese and Korean) have demonstrated they can deliver proifts on far lower volumes, thus requiring faster launch cycles and more niche products to succeed.  GM lacks the manufacturing cost structure (in short-term line costs as well as labor) and the new product introduction processes to survive against these competitors.   In newspapers consolidating the reporting into a daily made sense when you needed vast and costly infrastructure to print and deliver the news – no longer requirements in a web-enabled news marketplace.

Economists can make strong arguments for subsidies to help short-term dislocations.  Such as helping companies in New Orleans to get back up and running due to a hurricane.  That is a short-term problem not related to a market shift.  But arguments for subsidies offered during market shifts are strictly "public policy" efforts trading off one policy cost for another.  They cannot "save" a business.  The company and its employees must use the subsidy to change their Success Formula as fast as possible, so they can compete with some product in some market where they can grow — without need for a subsidy

TARP and its other stimulus products are intended to keep some air in some parts of the boat so it doesn't sink entirely.  But they aren't fixing the ship.  That requires new competitors emerge that are attuned to current market needs, and have Success Formulas that produce profits based upon future markets.  As the economist Schumpeter said 70 years ago, we rely upon these new entrepreneurs to give us the creative new solutions that create growth in the wake of the destruction of old businesses unable to keep up with shifting markets.  Let's hope we don't spend all our money trying to keep the old battleship afloat, because we'll need some to help the newer, faster, more agile competitors grow with solutions that meet current and future needs. 

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