Fait Accompli

If you don’t control your destiny, who does?  Most Americans are especially proud of their independence, because it gives them the strong sense that their destiny is up to them.  While everyone understands the role of luck and timing, those who also understand their strengths can find ways to maximize them.  Anericans have the opportunity to make the most out of our circumstances.  And that independence is also true for business.  In America, home of capitalism if not the birthplace, any business has the ability to direct itself toward greater returns and success.  And the larger you are, the greater your resources, the greater your ability to control your destiny and maximize your results.

So how is it that General Motors, the world’s largest auto company, would say that it’s destiny is not in the hands of its leaders?  As the Board of Directors at GM reinforced its support in its CEO, I was shocked to read the following quote in today’s Chicago Tribune (read article here):

  • "Most of the problems the company is suffering are not of their own making.  There’s been radical changes in North American demand," said David Hel, an analyst at Burnham Securities Inc. in Sierra Vista, Ariz., said.  "I don’t think making a change at the top is going to solve that."

Excuse me????  What was that?  We’re to believe the largest auto company in the world, with all those assets, all that cash flow, all those employees, was without the ability to influence its own competitiveness and results?  We’re to believe that no leader would have managed this absolutely dysmally performing company any better the last 5 years?  The CEO, who over the last few years has watched the company lose market share, see it’s share price drop to a 54 year low (chart here), sold off many of the most valuable remaining assets (like GMAC) and overseen write-offs that exceed the entire market value of the firm is not responsible??   I do hope your investment firm receives enormously large fees for helping GM with its pension plan investments, or whatever it is you do for them, to make such a blatantly ridiculous comment.  Because you just shot your personal credibility all to heck.  l’m sure employees and investors could help identify a raft of better leaders than the ones who drove GM into its current dire straits.  Mr. Waggoner may be well educated, well speaking, bright, cordial, tall, and good looking – but he’s done one heck of a terrible job as CEO at GM.

I guess following Mr. Hel’s confused thinking the leaders at Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Kia have no responsibility for the success of their companies.  It’s all just a random set of variables that leads to success, or failure for an auto company? 

Time for a reality check here.  Of course the decisions made by leaders at GM were very different than the decisions made by Honda’s leaders.  And the outcomes are radially different.  What has befallen General Motors is a failure to recognize that markets keep growing, just in different ways.  The demand for transportation has never been greater than it is today.  Sure it may have shifted, from horses years ago to trains to automobiles to airplanes.  And the kinds of autos people want to buy may have shifted around since the Model T was number 1.  And the growth in auto sales may now be greater in China and India than the USA.  But the demand for transportation is growing, not declining.  So the market is growing – just not GM.  Because GM quit trying to grow, and tried to Defend & Extend its practices and traditional markets.

GM leadership was willing to consider itself a "mature" company.  Thus GM’s management expectations for growth were allowed to subside.  Instead of measuring itself against total growth, managers became happy to talk about GM share and growth in selected segments.  Thus GM could justify its below-market growth, and claim that it was an acceptably mature company.  The leadership was OK with performing poorly because it abdicated its responsibility to growth – despite the impact on shareholders, employees, suppliers and customers.  Management, and apparently the Board of Directors, is more happy to fail as GM than to become a better company – albeit one significantly different than the one sucking tail pipe fumes now.

Once any leadership team accepts that slower growth is acceptable, ultimate failure is a fait accompli – it will happen.  Growth absolutely will slow.  And eventually that will lead to enormous troubles.  For any analyst or investor to claim that growth is out of the hands of management is syccophantic.  As we know, despite the move to small cars in the 1970s, then big cars, and to higher quality cars, and then to higher mile-per-gallon cars year after year the offshore manufacturers have been growing share at the expense of the U.S. companies (except for the great success Chrysler had prior to its acquisition and innovation killing management changes by Daimler Benz).  These offshore competitors did not relegate themselves to excuses about shifting customer tastes between segments as they came out with new models that covered the board – including pickups and SUVs – to keep their share profitably growing.

If you haven’t thrown in the towel on GM – you should definitely do so now.  Clearly, the leadership team has given up on figuring out how to be successful.  They are hoping to do no more than survive by doing what they’ve always done.  And we know that won’t work.  They may survive a while, but without growth the competitors will eventually eat up all their customers, resources and eventually them.  By admitting they can’t believe a different leadership team could find a better way to compete, and grow, demise is a fait accompli.

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