Today Walgreen’s (see chart here) announced it was dropping its plan to purchase Long’s Drugs (see chart here). (Read article here.) This means a lower offer to buy Long’s from CVS (see chart here) now comes to the forefront. Yet, some of Long’s big shareholders are balking that the CVS bid is too low. And all this amid the most dynamic set of economic circumstances since the 1930s. So, who’s right?
As you might expect, it all depends on your scenario about the future. Walgreen’s has seen it’s equity value fall 50% in the last 2 years. Pretty amazing given that the "core" business is considered highly resistant sales of necessary drug items – after all regardless the economy people get sick and they need medicine. But the reality is that Walgreen’s built its reputation on its Success Formula the last decade of being able to open a new store every 20 hours or so. That’s an easy to understand Success Formula, but it has the obvious downside of identifying the weakness of saturation. To maintain growth, Walgreen’s requires opening more and more stores. But there are markets (like the hometown Chicago area) where stores are getting almost every block! People started wondering if Walgreen’s could keep growing once it had to drive more revenue out of existing stores – rather than just opening new ones.
But now real estate is falling in value. And we all know debt is getting harder and more expensive to obtain. It’s going to be harder and harder to borrow money to buy land and put up buildings. We’re also hearing that pension payments are going to be cut, due to lower stock valuations, and money for health care could be harder to come by. Looking forward, Walgreen’s decided it was smarter to focus on its existing stores than taking on a slug of new debt and a bunch of new stores. Especially given that many of these new stores (at Long’s) would be redundant to existing Walgreen’s in California — and who’s going to buy the land and buildings or leases for those stores if the economy going forward is as bad as being predicted? Sears (see chart here) buyer Ed Lampert was supposed to make a fortune selling all those Sears buildings – and that hasn’t exactly worked out (to put it mildly).
You have to hand it to a leadership team willing to change course. The good news is that for the last several years Walgreen’s hasn’t just opened new stores. The company has experimented with all kinds of new sales initiatives – from printing photos to refilling ink cartridges to selling groceries and even clothing. Unfortunately, many of those efforts took a back seat to new store openings. Walgreen’s didn’t see them as Disruptive growth opportunities, and they weren’t given White Space with permission to do whatever was necessary to succeed, nor the dedicated resources to really develop an alternative Success Formula. So they were just experiments with minimal impact. But now, for Walgreen’s to keep growing, it will have to do some Disrupting and put those projects front and center. The company will have to put some serious energy into learning if it can bring out its own high-end cosmetics line (aborted), or it’s own designer clothing (aborted) or capture decent share in selected office supplies versus Staples (aborted).
It’s hard for a Locked-in organization to change course. The momentum to keep doing what was always done is enormous. For Walgreen’s it must have appeared oh-so-tempting to buy Long’s. "Damn the Torpedos, full speed ahead" is such an easy cry for the company skipper to make. But here it really appears that some good scenario planning has kept the company from running headlong into a deal that could bankrupt the business if things do go southward economically (as it appears).
But to regain its previous success, Walgreen’s now has to change its Success Formula. And that requires more than walking away from a deal. It requires implementing a Disruption and getting serious about White Space to figure out what will make Walgreen’s the super-retailer of 2020. The company made a good move today, and now we’ll have to see if they can follow through.
Meanwhile, if you own Long’s Drug you should sell as fast as possible. The company value has increased 4x in the last 4 years – with a huge pop based on the acquisition discussions. And the company has no plan for how to grow enough to maintain the recent value. If CVS is willing to purchase Long’s, sell to them. What we can be sure of is that the saturation of drug stores has already begun, and any business that has too many assets, and too much debt, is not a good place to be invested. Better to have the cash.
