So we now hear that Congress will loan $15billion to GM, Ford and Chrysler intended to keep them going concerns until at least March. We've been told that there are requirements on the loans that will better the industry. But honestly, there's nothing new being proposed that makes any difference, nor the proper teeth in Congress's proposed bill. (Read about the bill here.)
The bill limits executive bonuses and severance packages. But why does it let management (and the Boards of Directors) keep their jobs? It is clear that these leaders, and their management teams, led these companies into desperate circumstances. They put their bondholders, equity investors and employees all at risk. They passed the "brink" and got to the point of requiring government assistance to stop a cataclysmic disaster. So why are these people left in their jobs? How can anyone expect a really changed industry if the people who sold off assets for 2 decades trying to Defend & Extend a thoroughly out of date and broken Success Formula are given the money to invest?
Oh, we can expect a "car czar" who is supposed to oversee these loans and assure a the industry invests appropriately for change. Who's the right guy for this job (don't forget – I applied!)? We now read that the lawyer who oversaw the handout of money to survivors of 9/11/01 victims. This is, of course, the right qualifications to evaluate business plans, investment rates and innnovation programs for an industry. He's shown he can hand out money – but where has he shown he knows anything about re-engineering a very broken, large company? Where does he have credentials for un-knotting the Lock-in that keeps these companies dysfunctional? And how is he supposed to stand up to management teams that claim to have superior knowledge about auto company management – despite driving these companies into the proverbial financial ground.
The union leadership apparently wants Board seats in exchange for concessions. What difference will that make? Do union leaders know how to turn around companies where they encouraged Lock-in that cost them thousands of jobs? Are they trying to reach back to the kind of union practices that kept coal stokers on trains long after electric automotives were introduced? Defending & Extending out of date union practices won't fix these companies either. What these union leaders need to be asking for is government promises to secure the unfunded pension obligations, and creating a government program to preserve heath care costs that are likely to be stripped in an effort to lower variable costs. There is no bailout that can cover these costs indefinitely – and that is where labor restructuring needs to focus.
As investors, Americans deserve better than leftover thinking for their investment. More of the old management won't fix the problems. What's required is White Space to make significant changes:
- Auto design has to change from backward integration and standardization for manufacturing to forward-thinking which brings customers
- Distribution has to allow customers more opportunites to buy than the old-fashioned, and tedious, dealer structure which puts off almost all customers (and makes buying an unpleasant event). Customers deserve the right to buy direct if they like, and from dealers if they enjoy what dealers offer.
- Manufacturing has to change from "scale" to "build to order". Flexibility has to overtake 80 year old industrial design practices which have made the products inflexible and too expensive.
- Pension reform is essential. The overhead costs of pensions makes these companies unviable. This will require government intervention.
- Health care reform is essential. Perhaps Michigan should follow the Oregon example (and Massachusetts), and be a leader in developing programs to have state-assisted insurance coverage for everyone. Perhaps this should be an experiment in changing from employer paid health coverage, which offshore competitors do not have to shoulder, to self-paid coverage with guaranteed protection.
These are complex problems. They defy simple solutions. They require White Space. Cut Saturn free (again, like when it was founded) to experiment with new solutions. Give other nameplates the indepence to experiment with other possibilities. Monitor performance, see what works, and migrate toward what succeeds.
Now is the time to implement Disruptions and try something new. When the airline industry was grounded in 2001 there was a tremendous opportunity to restructure from unprofitable hub-and-spoke systems with outdated practices to new approaches using White Space. But neither government, nor the industry, took advantage of the stoppage to really try something new. Everyone was in a rush to start operating again, with practically no change. A huge opportunity was lost. And that sounds like the direction we're headed with the desperately uncompetitive auto industry.
We should not make that mistake again. Now is the time to Disrupt these companies. Fire the executive teams and the Boards. They've never been shy about firing employees or vendors. Put new management in place that understands how to manage innovation – rather than Lock-in. Get people in the jobs who don't want to Defend & Extend what's broken – but instead want to make changes and learn what will make these companies world class once again. And put in place competent oversight that can make sure change happens.
