I have noticed a common behavior among companies in the Swamp and Whirlpool stages of the lifecycle. They never seem to plan ahead for unexpected things to happen. It is as if they make an annual plan and there are no contingencies for marketplace challenges and disruptions. Maybe they really do believe that the plan will turn out like they lay it out if they simply hold the leaders accountable, which would indicate a terminal case of denial and self-deception.
Consider the major airlines which always seem to be on the verge of bankruptcy. After 9/11, they have all been in survival mode and their actions have been classic Defend & Extend Management: cut costs, layoff employees and reduce their pay, reduce prices, reorganize the business, replace management. They think that if they can do these things, they will become competitive again.
But they didn’t plan on oil prices reaching all time highs, which meant they had to make deeper cuts and go to even harsher extremes. And now, it seems that these troubled airlines didn’t plan on their healthy competitors adding more planes as part of their growth plans. (Well duh!) That’s a problem because more planes means more capacity which means more competition which means lower prices. And that means that the major airlines’ plans to rebound aren’t worth much. The fact is that they never were worth much.
Troubled organizations like those late in their lifecycle don’t have
any excess capacity. That’s why they keep getting knocked further and
further down by marketplace changes. No sooner than they recover from
one crisis, another crashes onto the scene. If you need proof, read the
countless annual reports that offer excuse after excuse for unexpected
events that hurt the company’s performance that year. Then read the hollow
promises about how they’ll plan better next year.
It would be valuable for any senior manager of a business or functional unit to assume that unexpected things are going to happen and to plan ahead for them. Scenario planning as a discipline has been around for many years and is a useful practice. In addition, every organization must budget for excess capacity to deal with unexpected challenges. Where will you get the money, people, capital, and management bandwidth to deal with surprises? In order to estimate how much extra capacity is necessary, managers can evaluate prior years and determine how much was consumed by surprises in the past. This, coupled with effective scenario planning, can help companies minimize the consequences of unexpected disruptions.
Oh, and adopting The Phoenix Principle wouldn’t be a bad idea either!
